I was reading “Talk Two” of “Poor Charlie’s Almanac” last night. It’s the biography of Charlie Munger legendary investor Warren Buffet’s trusted business partner for many years until Munger’s death at the age of 99 in 2023.
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.”
Titled “On Elementary World Wisdom” talk number two is about mental models. Now when you talk mental models to me I think of “Tools of Titans” and “Great Mental Models“, two books chock full of ideas and thinking principles.
So it got me thinking… Are there any clear mental models that can apply to my chosen specialist subject of SEO?
Yes, Yes there are… Several mental models are highly relevant to SEO. These models help SEO professionals to understand complex systems, make better decisions, and develop effective digital strategies. So without further ado, here are some key mental models and why they’re applicable to SEO:
1. First Principles Thinking
The first principles thinking model involves taking a problem, breaking it down into its component parts and starting your reasoning with all the pieces on the table so to speak.
In SEO, this means understanding the core principles of how search engines discover, crawl, index, and rank content, rather than just following the latest trends or surface-level advice. It’s akin to Simon Sinek’s “Start with Why” book. Lots of words but just take the simple premise and start with what, why, how, who, and when. Charlie Munger says much the same thing in his talk..
So in SEO for example, instead of just launching straight into the notion of link buying (A big no no in my book) or “just build loads of great backlinks”, which is easier said than done, first principles thinking starts at the very beginning. You should ask why do backlinks help? What fundamental signal are they sending to search engines? Which backlinks would help, why, and who is going to do this work. This first principles thinking leads to a much deeper understanding of link quality and relevance.
That’s why I put it first.
2. The Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule)
The Pareto principle suggests that roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes.
In SEO, this can manifest in various ways:
- 80% of your traffic might come from 20% of your keywords.
- 80% of your results might be driven by 20% of your efforts (e.g., focusing on high-impact content or technical optimizations).
Identifying and focusing on these high-impact areas can lead to more efficient results. For instance, concentrating on optimising the pages in your website that are already bringing in the most traffic or fixing the most critical technical errors first (Use the t-shirt model and fix the large, medium, then small errors).
As with all these mental models, evaluate and re-evaluate your workings and results, then you’ll know whether you’re following Pareto’s law. It’s OK to adjust and find a new 80/20 or a more effective mental model for your SEO.
3. The Red Queen Theory
This theory, borrowed from Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass,” suggests that one must constantly run (improve) just to stay in the same place. In other words, “running to stand still”.
In SEO, this is highly relevant because search engine algorithms and the competitive digital landscape are constantly shifting and evolving. What worked yesterday might not work today, and that mindset of continuous learning and adaptation is crucial.
For example, if your website traffic has increased due to a specific tactic, you can’t stop there; competitors will probably also adapt, and search engines will likely change their algorithms, requiring ongoing effort. So you too must run to stand still. If you run just that bit faster than your rivals, you’ll get ahead, aye?
4. Local Maxima
The local maxima concept involves getting stuck at a suboptimal peak. In SEO, this can happen when you find a strategy that yields some positive results and stick to it without exploring potentially better alternatives. You might be ranking well for certain keywords but miss out on opportunities to rank even higher or for more valuable terms by not experimenting and testing new approaches.
For instance, you might be comfortable with your current content format but not realise that a different format (like video or interactive content) could attract significantly more traffic and engagement. Even spicing up your existing text-heavy content with quotes, FAQs, a few illustrations or a video insert will add value that you’d previously not investigated.
5. Sunk Cost Fallacy
The sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to continue investing in something simply because you’ve already invested time, money, or effort into it, even if it’s no longer the best course of action.
In SEO, this could involve clinging to a poorly performing website design that’s built on a bloaty theme, too many nodes in the Document Object Model (DOM) or a content strategy that is no longer delivering results but you carry on regardless just because you’ve spent a lot of time and resources on it.
Understanding that you’re in this situation and realising when to pivot and cut your losses is essential, both as a digital marketing strategy and a critical business decision.
6. Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out and interpret information that confirms your existing beliefs or hypotheses while ignoring contradictory evidence. In SEO, this can lead to misinterpreting data or clinging to outdated tactics.
So here’s a classic example: if you believe that long-form content is always better, you might only focus on creating lengthy articles and disregard data showing that shorter, more focused content performs better for your audience.
What is absolutely critical is that your SEO is data-driven or indeed data-led. With the facts at hand you should always be open to challenging your own assumptions.
7. Second-Order Thinking
The concept of second-order thinking involves considering the consequences of your actions, and then the consequences of those consequences.
In SEO, this means not just thinking about the immediate impact of a change but also the longer-term effects. This encourages strategic thinking rather than tactical thinking. Notice how I didn’t say “just” tactical thinking?
A good example is that while aggressive link-building and even the controversial practice of link buying might provide a short-term boost in rankings (first-order effect), it could also lead to penalties from search engines in the long run (second-order effect).
If you analyse Google’s Spam Policies, buying links falls under the category of being link spam:
Link spam
Link spam is the practice of creating links to or from a site primarily for the purpose of manipulating search rankings. The following are examples of link spam:
- Buying or selling links for ranking purposes.
So why there are advertisers selling links on YouTube, which is owned by Google, is a direct violation of the link spam policy.
8. Inversion
Inversion, as a problem-solving technique, involves thinking about what you want to avoid rather than what you want to achieve! I must admit to having a little cognitive dissonance over this method as I really love to focus on the positive and have a strategic goal to aim for rather than a focus to avoid.
In SEO, using the inversion technique could mean identifying what could hurt your rankings (e.g., thin content, broken links, slow page speed) and focusing on preventing or fixing those issues. But then if you use any of the tools, from Google Search Console to SEMrush, you’ll see lots of flags for these things anyway, so it’s a natural model to follow – fix things that are broken or holding back your website.
9. Opportunity Cost
The opportunity cost model is the value of the next best alternative that you forgo when making a decision.
In SEO, every action you take has an opportunity cost. If you’re spending time optimising one set of keywords that quite naturally quite naturally means that you’re not spending valuable SEO time optimising another set of key terms.
Understanding the potential value of different SEO activities will help you to prioritise more effectively.
10. Comparative Advantage
The economic principle of comparative advantage suggests focusing on what you do best and outsourcing other tasks.
In SEO, if your strength is content creation and blog writing but you’re struggling with the dark art of technical SEO, it might be wise to outsource those technical SEO audits and implementation to an expert who has the skills and experience.
11. The Law of Diminishing Returns
The law of diminishing returns is one I see every so often in SEO. This principle states that after a certain point, adding more of an input will yield smaller increases in output.
Pertaining to SEO, diminishing returns can apply to various efforts, such as the number of backlinks, the frequency of content publishing, or the amount of time spent on minor optimisations. Recently it was reported that Google replaced 75% meta data in the SERPs using its own interpretations of the page content. So this is where you must ask yourself – is it worth spending so much time on optimising title tags and meta descriptions?
The art here from the mental model is that it’s critical that you recognise when you’ve reached a point of diminishing returns helps in allocating resources efficiently. “Know your limits” and “know when to stop” are good advice here. You don’t have to stop completely,. just know that more effort right now may be a waste of resources. Do something else and return, evaluate, and re-evaluate again later.
12. Occam’s Razor
The Occam’s Razor principle, often attributed to 14th–century friar William of Ockham, is deeply rooted in scientific circles which is ironic considering its religious roots.
Occam’s razor suggests that the simplest explanation is usually the best.
In SEO, when faced with a ranking issue or a sudden change in traffic, it’s often best to first consider the most straightforward explanations rather than jumping to complex or convoluted theories. By all means, explore your options, but the simplest and most often the first idea is usually the best.
Conclusion
Understanding and applying these simple mental models can provide a more strategic and insightful approach to your SEO, which in turn leads to better decision-making and ultimately, improved results. They encourage a deeper understanding of the underlying principles and help you be a better SEO.
If you want to apply these mental models to your SEO then let me know – call me on 01252 692 765 to discuss your SEO project